A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
